Win-Loss Predictions for Every Team Following Complete NBA 2023-24 Schedule Release

The NBA's full 2023-24 schedule is out, which means it's time to break down the incoming win-loss records for all 30 teams.

Educated by the regular-season over/unders at FanDuel's Sportsbook and the fact that the league's total for wins has to match its total for losses, you'll find predictions for each squad below.

Before reading, though, bear in mind that we're firmly in the era of NBA parity. Thirteen of the 30 win totals from FanDuel are between 40 and 50. Only six teams eclipsed 50 wins last season. And 2022-23's best net rating (net points per 100 possessions) was below seven.

Just about every team in the league has a star talent. Most have at least two. On a given night, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner could get hot enough to beat a team like the Golden State Warriors, and no one would be shocked.

The predictions below will reflect today's talent-rich league.

Over/Under: 41.5

After years of rumors, the Atlanta Hawks finally traded John Collins in a deal that amounted to little more than a salary dump. Generally, losing talent for nothing is an NBA no-no, but Atlanta might be fine moving forward.

The Hawks' net rating was worse with Collins on the floor in each of his last two seasons, and his departure should mean more minutes for up-and-comers Onyeka Okongwu and Jalen Johnson. A more positionless starting forward tandem with De'Andre Hunter and Saddiq Bey should help too.

Ultimately, though, the success or failure of this team will once again depend on Trae Young and Dejounte Murray.

Last season, the Hawks were a ho-hum plus-1.6 points per 100 possessions when both were on the floor. They'll have to much more thoroughly dominate those minutes if they're going to push closer to 50 wins.

Over/Under: 54.5

It's cliche, but Marcus Smart really has been the beating heart of the Boston Celtics for several years. His playmaking and point-of-attack defense were big reasons Boston was generally better when he was on the floor the last nine years.

Replacing him with the oft-injured Kristaps Porziņģis (who's already dealing with plantar fasciitis ahead of training camp) is, at the very least, a bit of a gamble on the team's chemistry.

But at this point, Derrick White is probably a better player than Smart. Malcolm Brogdon is still around to help fill those shoes too. And if Porziņģis can give Boston 60-plus games, the Celtics should be a lot better offensively.

Add all that to the fact that Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are still around and it's easy to see this team competing for the top seed in the East.

Really, the only reason Boston is coming in below that over/under is the parity mentioned in the intro. There are a lot of good teams in the NBA right now. Getting to the mid-50s in wins is going to exceptionally challenging.

Over/Under: 37.5

Losing all of James Harden, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant in the space of about a year wasn't ideal, but the Brooklyn Nets emerged from that long, strange trip in solid shape.

On top of the draft assets they accumulated from all the star trades, Brooklyn got players who can keep it competitive in the short term.

Last season, when former Phoenix Suns Cameron Johnson and Mikal Bridges played with Nic Claxton, the Nets were plus-7.1 points per 100 possessions.

And there are several players on the roster, including Dorian Finney-Smith and Royce O'Neale, who can be added to lineups with those three to create some intriguing, largely positionless lineups.

Of course, that's kind of a novelty if it costs the team playmaking, so Spencer Dinwiddie and Dennis Smith Jr. should get their shots to join those groups too.

But if (and yes, this is a massive "if") Ben Simmons can get and stay healthy, the Nets wouldn't have to sacrifice playmaking or positional size. In that (perhaps unlikely) scenario, Brooklyn could push for 50 wins.

Over/Under: 30.5

There's still some uncertainty surrounding the Charlotte Hornets.

P.J. Washington has yet to re-sign. It's hard to know exactly what Miles Bridges (who'll play this season on a $7.9 million qualifying offer) will give them after missing all of 2022-23 while going through the legal process for domestic violence charges. And two of the team's highest-paid players, LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward, have struggled to stay healthy for much of the last three years.

Assuming those two can give them 60-plus games, Washington re-signs, Bridges plays close to the level he did in 2021-22 and Terry Rozier plays more like he did during his first two seasons with the Hornets than he did in 2022-23, Charlotte should at least be competitive.

That's a lot of assumptions, though. And the Eastern Conference is significantly better than it's been in years past. To push toward a .500 record, the Hornets will probably need someone to smash expectations.

Perhaps that's incoming rookie wing Brandon Miller. If he scores in the high teens and shoots around 40 percent from three, Charlotte's prospects probably look a lot different.

Over/Under: 36.5

After playing just 35 games in 2021-22 and missing all of 2022-23, it looks like Lonzo Ball is going to miss another entire season dealing with a knee injury.

And while the Chicago Bulls have plenty of offensive firepower from DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vučević, they've often looked directionless on that end with Ball there to organize everything.

Last season, they finished 24th in points per 100 possessions and put up an uninspiring 113.4 (which ranked in the 39th percentile) when all three of the above played.

Barring a big leap from someone like Coby White or Patrick Williams, it's hard to imagine a team that's mostly the same suddenly being a lot better on that end of the floor.

Still, talent is talent. And this roster has some nice gap-filling players like Alex Caruso, Jevon Carter, Andre Drummond and Torrey Craig. The Bulls may not look much better than a fringe play-in team, but they can exceed that over/under.

Over/Under: 50.5

One year after trading for Donovan Mitchell, the Cleveland Cavaliers made more noise this summer by acquiring Max Strus and Georges Niang.

In theory, those two will improve upon the Cavs' shooting and provide a little stability on the wing. Last season, small forward was about the only position that didn't feel rock solid.

So, why the slight step back from 51 wins in 2022-23 and a prediction that they'll go under in 2023-24?

For one thing, the East figures to be stout again. And it's not hard to imagine improvements in the win column from the Miami Heat (who won 44 games in 2022-23), New York Knicks (47) and Atlanta Hawks (41), to name a few.

Strus might not be the upgrade over Cedi Osman some perceive him to be either. The loss of Ricky Rubio (who has "decided to stop my professional activity to take care of my mental health") and a lack of depth at center could hurt the bench too.

That doesn't make this under a lock, of course. Cleveland was plus-10.2 points per 100 possessions when Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen were on the floor in 2022-23. Both Garland and Mobley could be better next season.

It just feels like 2023-24's 50-win club is going to be exclusive, and that necessitated some tough cuts.

Over/Under: 44.5

The temptation to bump the Dallas Mavericks into what's a pretty exclusive 50-win club for this exercise is strong.

The sample size is small, but Dallas was plus-13.1 points per 100 possessions when Tim Hardaway Jr., Kyrie Irving and Luka Dončić were all on the floor in 2022-23.

And now, that high-powered offensive trio will be surrounded by a deeper supporting cast.

Dante Exum had a bona fide breakout for Partizan Belgrade in 2022-23 that should send him back to the NBA with plenty of confidence. Grant Williams is a sturdier option at forward than Reggie Bullock was. Seth Curry's shooting will spread defenses out for whoever shares the floor with him.

If either (or both) of Jaden Hardy and Josh Green take big steps forward in 2023-24, Dallas might even be a fringe title contender.

But, of course, that status would have more to do with Dončić and Irving than anything else. The former will be an MVP candidate again (he's finished top 10 in voting in each of the last four seasons), and the latter is one of the best offensive players in the world.

If both are available in any given series, the Mavericks will have the proverbial puncher's chance.

Over/Under: 53.5

It may seem a little odd to pick the reigning champs to go under and finish with one fewer win than they had in 2022-23, but the Denver Nuggets famously took their foot off the gas for the last several weeks of last season. And that was before they won the first title in franchise history.

The strength and depth of the West and the chance that Denver coasts again are the driving factors behind the 52-win prediction.

But that's still (spoiler alert) tied with the Boston Celtics for best record in the league. And a 2015-16 Golden State Warriors-like prove-it tour wouldn't be all that shocking.

I'm certainly not suggesting Denver can win 70-plus games, but it has experienced a lot of the same naysaying that the Warriors got after winning it all in 2015, and Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokić could be out to prove all of that wrong.

Regardless of how the Nuggets treat the regular season, if those two, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are available come playoff time, they'll be in the top tier of title contenders.

If one or two of the young bench pieces like Peyton Watson, Christian Braun or Jalen Pickett pops, Denver should be prohibitive favorites.

Over/Under: 28.5

If the version of Cade Cunningham that reportedly dominated Team USA in a scrimmage is able to play 70-plus games for the Detroit Pistons, there's a decent chance they exceed their over/under.

If he plays in lineups that include shooting from some combination (or all three) of Bojan Bogdanović, Joe Harris and Alec Burks, Cunningham will pile up assists and enjoy wider driving lanes than he ever has before.

But this rotation still figures to include tons of inexperience from guards like Jaden Ivey and Ausar Thompson and a big like James Wiseman. And that means Detroit will go through another season taking plenty of lumps and losses.

At this point in their rebuilding timeline, that's probably still OK. Another high draft pick wouldn't hurt, and seasons like this make it easier to identify the prospects who are keepers.

Two or three years from now, lineups with Cunningham, Ivey, Thompson and Jalen Duren could be dominating in large part due to the lessons they learn in 2023-24.

Over/Under: 48.5

Andrew Wiggins' extended absence limited the Golden State Warriors' starting lineup's total minutes together, but it was (at least by one measure) the best five-man unit in basketball.

Among lineups with at least 100 minutes played, the one with Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Wiggins, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney ranked first with a net rating of plus-21.9.

And now, that dominance will be backed up by a bench piloted by Chris Paul.

CP3 should absolutely feast against reserve defenders. And his playmaking will put the respective development of players like Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody into overdrive.

Even if the Warriors put Paul into the starting five (he's started all 1,214 of his career games), they can still achieve all of the above by properly staggering the rotation.

However coach Steve Kerr wants to play it, having CP3 available for Jordan Poole's minutes is a clear, short-term upgrade.

Over/Under: 31.5

The over/under and Dunks and Threes' estimated wins (the cumulative version of estimated plus-minus, one of the most trusted catch-all metrics among NBA front offices) are both a little higher on the Houston Rockets' additions of Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks than this prediction is.

The reasons for that are pretty simple. Both VanVleet and Brooks were surrounded by much more experienced supporting casts at their previous stops, and the atrocious shooting efficiency of both could be a bit more glaring alongside Houston's young core.

But even if a slight under initially seems pessimistic, 30 wins is still eight more than last season. And, as has been noted, dramatic improvements are going to be hard to come by in the ultra-competitive West.

In fact, an eight-win improvement is pretty dramatic, and at least for me, it has more to do with the young players than the incoming free agents.

VanVleet's leadership and Brooks' defense could help, but the expected improvement of intriguing young talents like Jabari Smith Jr., Jalen Green and Alperen Şengün should move the needle more.

If Amen Thompson's playmaking is more NBA-ready than we realize, then that over/under is really in trouble.

Over/Under: 37.5

The Indiana Pacers surprised a lot of fans and analysts when they started 23-18, but an injury to Tyrese Haliburton sent them spiraling down the standings.

If he can stay healthy and Bruce Brown can play like he did during the Denver Nuggets' title run, an above-.500 season is very much in play.

With those two, Myles Turner and Buddy Hield, Indiana has a rock-solid top four, but much of the rest of the roster is largely unproven.

If Bennedict Mathurin or Obi Toppin breaks out, the Pacers' outlook would be a lot different, but those bets don't feel safe enough to go much higher than 38 with the prediction.

Over/Under: 46.5

It's hard to make any kind of bet on the Los Angeles Clippers.

Their two best players, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, have averaged 40.3 and 47.3 games per year, respectively, since joining the team ahead of the 2019-20 season.

And the supporting cast that's helped keep the team afloat during all those absences is another year older.

If, somehow, the stars can play closer to 60 games, and Russell Westbrook can eat up a bunch of the innings those two miss, this team is still good enough to win 50 games and compete for a title.

It's just hard to give them the benefit of the doubt anymore.

Over/Under: 47.5

It took the Los Angeles Lakers much of 2022-23 to find their rhythm (or, perhaps more accurately put, to undo the Russell Westbrook trade), but once they did, they played like a bona fide title contender.

The sample size is small (just north of 500 possessions), but over the course of the entire season, L.A. was plus-19.9 points per 100 possessions when LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Austin Reaves played without Russ.

And surrounding that trio with shooting from the likes of D'Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura and Taurean Prince should keep them on that contenders tier.

Of course, getting past the defending champions, who swept the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, might take a little more than staying the course.

Russell signed a very tradeable contract this summer, so some kind of move there could put them over the top. A leap from a young player like Max Christie could be another avenue. Maybe there's another gear for Reaves.

Whatever it is, L.A. needs just a bit more of a punch to go from contender back to the championship stage.

Over/Under: 46.5

The Memphis Grizzlies should be able to survive Ja Morant's 25-game suspension, and not just because of the addition of Marcus Smart (though that could certainly help).

Over the last two years (regular and postseason), Memphis is plus-7.9 points per 100 possessions when Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. play without Ja. That's slightly better than the plus-7.2 net rating the team has when all three are together.

The reasons for that difference might be worth exploring in another space. The point here is that Memphis is deep enough to win plenty of those first 25 games, which should put it in pretty good shape to exceed that over/under.

Over/Under: 48.5

The Miami Heat lost two starters (Max Strus and Gabe Vincent) from the team that went to the Finals in June. And while the additions of Josh Richardson and Thomas Bryant could certainly help fill some gaps, neither player feels like a surefire starter on a title contender.

Of course, we probably could've said the same about Strus and Vincent six months ago, and the Heat's system, culture and developmental prowess would've proved that wrong.

With Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and the infrastructure in place, it's tough to put limits on the Heat.

What's really driving this prediction to go over 48.5 wins, though, is the assumed acquisition of Damian Lillard.

Actually, if that happens, 50 wins might feel low.

Lillard's shot creation and way-beyond-the-three-point-line range makes him a seemingly perfect fit alongside Bam and Butler. And those two can help cover for Lillard's defensive woes.

Of course, he's not there yet, so this prediction is a hypothetical underneath another hypothetical.

Over/Under: 53.5

The Milwaukee Bucks have somewhat quietly become one of the oldest teams in the NBA (only the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Clippers have higher average ages).

And when you compound that with injury issues for individual players, it's easy to feel a hint of skepticism about the over/under.

Giannis Antetokounmpo has averaged 63.5 games per year over the last four seasons. Khris Middleton is at 57.3 over the same stretch. And while Brook Lopez played 78 games and had perhaps his best season as a Buck in 2022-23, he's 35 years old and had a back surgery during 2021-22.

Despite winning a league-best 58 games last season, a fifth-place finish in net rating and first-round loss to the eighth-seeded Miami Heat might be influencing this prediction too.

Even with all that in mind, though, it's not hard to see why the over/under is so high. This team has continuity, chemistry and one of the three or four best players in the world.

Last season, when Giannis and Lopez shared the floor with Jrue Holiday, Milwaukee was plus-15.6 points per 100 possessions.

Over/Under: 44.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves' Rudy Gobert trade was panned all season.

Karl-Anthony Towns' injury and Gobert having his worst season since he was a rookie (he ranked lower than the 94th percentile in estimated plus-minus for the first time since 2013-14) made it easy to push that take.

But the arrival of Mike Conley and return of Towns finally had the Wolves looking like many expected by the postseason.

They lost in five games to the eventual champion Denver Nuggets, but the series was competitive and Bruce Brown later called Minnesota the Nuggets' toughest postseason opponent.

With Gobert, Towns and Conley all coming back and Jaden McDaniels still improving, this over feels like a fairly safe bet.

Getting to 50 wins could come down to Anthony Edwards. He's looked like an absolute superstar in 11 career playoff games (where he's averaged 28.1 points, 4.0 assists and 3.5 threes), and if that version of him is around for all of 2023-24, 45 could look like a very conservative estimate in hindsight.

Over/Under: 44.5

As has been the case throughout his career, the success (or lack thereof) of the New Orleans Pelicans largely depends on the availability of Zion Williamson.

If he can play most of the season, New Orleans could compete for the top seed in the West (as it did for the first couple months of 2022-23). If he's around the 28.5 games per year that he's played throughout his career, the Pelicans will probably hover in the middle of the conference (during his career, New Orleans is plus-3.7 points per 100 possessions with Zion on the floor and minus-2.6 with him off).

Hence, the 42-win prediction.

But that prediction is qualified by a "probably" because of the rest of New Orleans' roster. Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum will almost certainly average 20-plus points. Jonas Valančiūnas is a double-double machine. Larry Nance Jr. is one of the game's more versatile defenders and underrated passers. And Herbert Jones can swing a game with his perimeter defense.

But the biggest reason a Zion-less Pelicans team might be able to beat expectations is Trey Murphy III. Over his last 15 games of 2022-23, Murphy averaged 21.7 points, 4.1 threes and 1.6 steals while shooting 45.9 percent from deep.

Over/Under: 44.5

The New York Knicks took an unusual path to the second-best offense in the NBA last season.

They were 19th in the league in effective field-goal percentage, but their dominance of the offensive boards (they finished second in offensive rebounding percentage) more than made up for that. And the players largely responsible for that are back.

Among the 367 with at least 500 minutes in 2022-23, Mitchell Robinson, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jericho Sims, Josh Hart and Julius Randle ranked third, 11th, 13th, 92nd and 104th, respectively, in offensive rebounds per 75 possessions.

Add their bruising interior play to the returns of Jalen Brunson and Quentin Grimes, as well as the arrival of Donte DiVincenzo, and it's easy to see the Knicks clearing this over and improving on last season's 47 wins.

Getting much more than that likely depends on RJ Barrett, who's been one of the league's least efficient scorers over the course of his four seasons. If Barrett can take a leap forward with his shotmaking, New York could be in the hunt for 50 wins.

Over/Under: 44.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder went 40-42 last season, so their fans may be frustrated to see what appears to be a prediction for a plateau here.

But remember, team improvement isn't always linear. Individual OKC players like Jalen Williams and Josh Giddey could absolutely be better next season, while general improvements throughout the West keep the Thunder around the same record they had last year.

There are plenty of reasons the oddsmakers see them being better, though.

Coming of a first-team All-NBA selection, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still just 25 years old. Lineups with him and the playmaking of Giddey and Williams will be a nightmare to defend. And what was perhaps last season's most glaring weakness (lack of size) may now be addressed by Chet Holmgren.

This team is absolutely loaded with young talent. And even if it doesn't take a huge leap forward in the win column this season, people should still be very high on its upside.

Over/Under: 36.5

After a 5-20 start to 2022-23, the Orlando Magic were above .500 for their last 57 games.

Considering the potential for improvement from each of Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr. and one or two other members of the young core, a season-long stretch of above-.500 basketball wouldn't be surprising.

But Orlando is one of four Southeast Division teams I have improving on their 2022-23 win totals, so it makes it hard (just from a mathematical standpoint) to have them smash that 36.5 over/under.

Still, predicting they go over is done with a fair amount of confidence. The combination of size (Carter, Banchero and Wagner are all 6'10"), playmaking and scoring in this young core is unique. And getting enough shooting from Gary Harris, Joe Ingles and Cole Anthony around it could make Orlando one of the league's tougher defensive assignments.

A 40-plus-win season isn't out of the question.

Over/Under: 49.5

A chaotic 2023 offseason took another wild turn for the Philadelphia 76ers this week, when James Harden publicly called president of basketball operations Daryl Morey a liar (twice), P.J. Tucker seemingly backed those comments and Joel Embiid removed "PROCESSING" and his location of Philadelphia from his profile on X, formerly known as Twitter.

Consider all of that considered when reacting to a 45-win prediction.

Yes, the Sixers undoubtedly have enough talent on the roster to compete for a championship (they did in 2022-23 too). But it feels almost impossible to predict how much of that talent will still be in place when the season starts in October.

Things could get especially dicey if Morey continues to hold off on a Harden trade and the team's starting point guard refuses to report.

Still, Philadelphia has been through something like this before. Ben Simmons sat out for months before he was traded to the Brooklyn Nets. And Embiid (assuming he's still around) can help the Sixers survive another high-profile absence.

If Tyrese Maxey gets to step into bigger shoes, that might be a silver lining too.

Last season, when Maxey and Embiid played without Harden, Philadelphia was plus-12.0 points per 100 possessions.

Over/Under: 52.5

Few (if any) teams have as much top-end talent as the Phoenix Suns, who'll bring four max players into 2023-24 (Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton).

But the rest of the roster is filled out with minimum-salary players. And while the front office nailed those moves this summer, there's a reason they're all on minimums.

There's also a chance those players could be stretched a bit further than expected.

Durant has averaged 34.3 appearances per season since the start of 2019-20 (the season he missed entirely with a torn Achilles). Beal has averaged 51.8 games a year during the same stretch. And Booker is at 62.7 over the last six years.

If those trends hold, players like Yuta Watanabe, Keita Bates-Diop and Eric Gordon (who's had his own issues with durability) become even more important.

And when you add all that to the persistent feeling that Deandre Ayton isn't long for this organization, it's easy to have some doubts about this team's regular-season prospects.

That's all relative, though. As you can see, even with all the question marks baked in, I still expect the Suns to compete for the top seed in the Western Conference. As long as they have two or three of the max guys available on a given night, they'll be a threat to win.

Over/Under: N/A

This prediction is obviously based on the belief that Damian Lillard will be gone before the season starts. He's not on the Miami Heat yet, but the trade request is out there. And it feels like the Portland Trail Blazers will eventually honor it.

Whether it's Miami or some other team, the return package is likely to be pick- and prospect-heavy too. And that means Portland, despite the arrival of Scoot Henderson and development of Shaedon Sharpe, will probably look a lot like it did when Lillard was off the floor in 2022-23.

The Blazers were a dismal minus-10.6 points per 100 possessions when Lillard didn't play. That's a point differential around that of an 18-win team.

Factor in the potential trade-deadline move of Jerami Grant (who clearly wouldn't fit the timeline of a Lillard-less team), and it's easy to see Portland cruising toward top-three odds in the 2024 draft lottery.

Over/Under: 44.5

Predicting a slight step back for the Sacramento Kings (who went 48-34 in 2022-23) feels weird, but again, the exercise requires 1,230 league-wide wins and 1,230 league-wide losses.

The West is going to be stacked, and if just one or two teams are better, it's going to be hard for Sacramento to get any closer to 50 wins. That's especially true if the Kings aren't quite as healthy as they were last season. Hence, the 44.5 over/under at FanDuel.

Still, comfortably exceeding that mark wouldn't be at all surprising.

Sacramento was plus-3.7 points per 100 possessions with De'Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, Keegan Murray, Harrison Barnes and Domantas Sabonis on the floor, and each of those first three players are 25 or under. It's reasonable to expect two or three to improve.

If a bench that includes Malik Monk, Trey Lyles, Davion Mitchell and reigning EuroLeague MVP Sasha Vezenkov can win its minutes too, this prediction could look silly in the spring.

Over/Under: 28.5

Victor Wembanyama could very well be the "greatest prospect in the history of team sports," as suggested by ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, but just about every superstar in the last 20 years has still had to go through an adjustment period.

Even LeBron James scored with way-below-average efficiency in his rookie campaign. Expect some growing pains for Wembanyama, especially on offense.

Having said that, his length and fluidity alone could make him a plus on defense right away. And combining him with Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell could give the Spurs some of the league's most interesting young lineups.

It'll take more than that to push 30 wins in the West, though. The conference is, as always, loaded. Some team will have to get squeezed, and the still-developing Spurs are probably a good candidate for that.

Over/Under: 36.5

The Toronto Raptors' X-factor is point Scottie Barnes.

He was more a lead creator in college than he's been in the NBA, but his ultimate ceiling is most likely reached in that role. With his own lack of shooting, he's an easier assignment if he's playing off the ball. Defenses can simply sag off him and help on drivers.

If Barnes is the initiator and surrounded by shooting (in theory, O.G. Anunoby and Gary Trent Jr. can provide that), Toronto might have a more dynamic attack in 2023-24 than it did last season.

And oh, despite an offseason packed with trade rumors, multi-time All-Star Pascal Siakam is still on the team too.

But losing Fred VanVleet for nothing hurts. Over the last three years, the Toronto Raptors were plus-3.1 points per 100 possessions when he was on the floor and minus-2.1 without him.

His 37.3 career three-point percentage will be sorely missed by a team that was already bad from the outside in 2022-23.

Of course, incoming point guard Dennis Schröder will shoulder some of the playmaking burden. And again, Barnes will help too. But the already-mediocre Raptors are likely to stay there without VanVleet.

Over/Under: 35.5

The Utah Jazz were better than expected for most of 2022-23, but they won't have the same element of surprise this season. That alone could make it tricky to improve on the 37 wins they just totaled, but there are plenty of factors going the other way.

Walker Kessler, who ranked in the 87th percentile in defensive estimated plus-minus as a rookie, should be better. Lauri Markkanen now has a year of confidence as an All-Star and No. 1 option under his belt. And the addition of John Collins should be a nice boost for an offense that finished top 10 last season.

If even one of Utah's young guards (a group that includes Collin Sexton, Talen Horton-Tucker and Keyonte George) exceeds expectations, this team has a shot to be above .500 and in the playoffs.

Over/Under: 24.5

The Washington Wizards' over/under suggests they'll be a team near the bottom of the Eastern Conference and nowhere near a play-in spot. And while that might be the likeliest outcome, there's at least a starting lineup here that could catch teams off-guard.

Tyus Jones, Jordan Poole, (insert young 3 like Deni Avdija or Corey Kispert here), Kyle Kuzma and Daniel Gafford is a unit with some real potential.

Jones is one of the most steady-handed floor generals in basketball. Poole and Kuzma are capable of going off for 30 (in fact, I'll bet you one or both eclipse 40 in a game this season). Gafford has potential to be a good rim-runner and rim-protector. And Avdija's defense or Kispert's shooting could be nice gap-fillers.

Of course, outside of Delon Wright, the bench has a lot more question marks. And an injury or two to one of those starters could send Washington into a tailspin. That wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing, since another high lottery pick would improve the team's future prospects.