These are Barack Obama's leads in the likely voter models presently included in the Real Clear Politics average, plus the Research 2000 poll which they arbitrarily exclude.
The polls in the Cingular-y orange color include cellphones in their samples; the polls in gray do not. The cellphone polls have Obama ahead by an average of 9.4 points; the landline-only polls, 5.1 points.
I did a radio hit the other afternoon with Mark DeCamillo of California's vaunted Field Poll, which does include cellphones in their samples. He suggested to me that it was much easier to get the cooperation of cellphone users on the weekend than during the week. How come? Because most cellphone plans include free weekend minutes. Conversely, one might expect that young people are particularly difficult to reach on their landlines over the weekend, since they tend to be away from home more (especially on a weekend when some nontrivial number of them are out volunteering for Obama). So, while I haven't tried to verify this, it wouldn't surprise me if the "cellphone gap" expands over the weekend, and contracts during the week.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
The Cellphone Effect, Continued
-- Nate Silver at 6:36 PM
Labels: cellphones
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762 comments
first on two in a row - jesus this is sad.
Second !
long time lurker, first time poster...
nate thanks for all this number juggling...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uxlZJOWSGJc
Indeed.
It's machine gun Nate tonight.
WV:crusubl Crush you Bin Laden?
I know several people (in the swing state of Colorado) who are cellphone only. Most of these folks, (like me I'm 39) are not young, but in their 30's and 40's and all of them are voting for Obama.
Good work as always, Nate.
I'm not sure how close the election itself is going to wind up. I'm hoping it's a decisive win for Obama, in which case I think one of the most interesting bits of post-election analysis will be looking at all the pollsters and trying to figure out which actually had the right methodology, and which did not.
The problem of cell phones is one that is definitely going to have to be addressed before 2012. Having so many pollsters not even *attempting* to contact cell phone users in this day and age is simply ridiculous.
I think they know it. And if they don't now, I think they definitely will on Wednesday.
--
Wondering what to do after the election?
I am starting a new board for discussing politics, current events and other interesting topics. It is a spin-off of the blog that some of you know about; you can read an overview of the forum here.
If interested, follow the instructions at the bottom to contact me. Brain-dead right-wing trolls need not apply. :)
Second polling update coming later today? PPP is releasing Virginia and PA numbers first out of the gate.
Nate, note that Pew's latest poll only included a Saturday of polling, but their prior one, which was O+14, included a Sat and Sunday (Oct 16-19). FWIW.
Can this guy -Nate?-what kind of name is that?!- post about something other than the election- it's so narrow-focussed.
how about some analysis on the coveted "mid-twenties hipsters who live with their parents and lurk on fivethirtyeight.com all day because they're unemployed" demographic? Is McCain gaining any ground with them?
It would be interested to see a graph showing the rate of cell-phone usage. I bet it's different in California compared to Mississippi.
Nate, you are underestimating the PUMA effect. Obama will pay the consequence for robbing the nomination from Hillary Clinton. On Nov 4, we will rip Obama apart.
P.S. PUMAs always publicly say the support Obama, but when they tick the ballot, they tick McCain!~
This week/weekend effect with cell phones makes a lot of sense. I know that many of these polls already show a pro-McCain lean over the weekends...this could be a big part of it.
Age and The Electoral College
I doubt Pollsters get enough cell phone numbers to even call. They are not for sale.
Look at the big brain on Nate!
PERFECT POST!
The Pew poll is for LV with undecideds allocated but if you look at their RV numbers it's Obama +11 which puts it in the bunch with the other cell phone polls.
ken k-
EVERYTHING is for sale , particularly since th law changed and cell phones can be called.
Real Time with Bill Maher - Recap of the 2008 Presidential Race
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=zUfGYa-CxNg
Nate:
Any plans for an evening poll update? I'd love to see the ABC +11 and todays CBS +13 since that downslope supertracker is annoying.
So when they poll "Likely voters" now (like in FL which is now a toss-up state at 50-50%), are they counting people who have already voted? Or are those polls just showing those that haven't voted?
As a Floridian, I have to tell you that I am freaking out that we are not light-blue anymore. I think I'm going to need some serious medication by Tuesday!
gaterse: Gaterse the environment as an important issue for Florida;)
I own a B&B in California and most of our guests give us their cell phones as their primary contact number. Many of those people do not have a land line phone. Any poll that does not include "cell phone only" people should be considered inaccurate.
Kids get cell phones as early as 13 years old these days. Why on earth would you bother getting a land line when you turn 18 if you've already been using a cell phone as your only phone for the past 5 years???
These pollsters need to get with the program. Land lines are going the way of the switchboard operator.
I've been cautiously thinking to myself for a while now that there's a "tie goes to Obama" factor in unpolled cell-only people... maybe I have been conservative with my weighting for that?
USA Today Poll (announced on Hardball; not yet released)
Obama leading by 11 among LV (biggest yet).
Dunno about you lot, but if I get a call on my cellphone and don't recognise the number, I generally let it go to answerphone.
Therefore any poll using mobile phones will automatically exclude cautious, slightly paranoid people who are frightened of change. Which is likely to skew them to John McCain.
ulspari - a sub-continental Indian language with no word for the colour red
"Second polling update coming later today? PPP is releasing Virginia and PA numbers first out of the gate."
When? You have a link?
As a 26-year-old, I have never had a landline under my own name. Since 2003, I have been cell phone only. I'd say 99% of my friends are the same way. I don't see how any of them are represented by polls that don't include data from cell phones.
PUMA will bring Obama down on Nov 4. We have been telling pollsters that we will vote for Obama, but we will vote for McCain on the ballot! We want Obama to taste defeat when he foolishly thinks he has the election in his bag! Barack Obama is an empty suit and has done NOTHING other than brainwashing followers with his flowery rhetorics.
John McCain on Nov 4~!!
I wish that the cell-including polls would reveal what their poll would look like if they took out the cell results and re-adjusted the sample.
If the non-cell polls end up undervaluing Obama's support, this is probably the last year that we have non-cell polls.
Here's my anecdotal cell phone story.
Myself, my Fiancee, and pretty much all of my close friends (6 people that I can think of right now) are Cell phone only.
None of us have been polled this election and we're all voting for Obama.
I can only hope that we can cancel out whatever insidious things the polls aren't accounting for that hurt Obama's numbers.
Yeah, I just heard USA Today's Susan Page on Hardball about the 11 point spread. Booyah!
USA Today just on hardball they have Obama opening his lead to 11%.
For PPP:
Publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com
just released on hardball: USA Today + 11
@chris g.
I'm in exactly the same boat--both personally and among my friends. The only question is whether our demographic votes in a significant percentage.
From Hardball:
USA Today is going to release tomorrow that Obama is up 11
@aunt karen (previous thread)
Thats probably correct, but I'm pretty sure that in the aftermath of this election the GOP will be decently messy.
Does anyone see any way that the country could produce another viable party in the future? What new combinations of ideologies would be required? Or would we need some kind of monumental disaster?
WV: fluber
that's obama +11 national
Nice blow by Mark Blumenthal at pollster.com with links to Zogby's "McCain up by 1"-fiasco:
"The pollsters that shamelessly hype their results one day, take it back the next, while issuing warnings that important blocks of voters remain 'volatile.' Hardly."
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/morning_status_update_for_sund_2.php
Don't forget to keep clicking on the RNC and McCain banners! Lets spread the wealth from Republicans to Nate!
:)
We have been telling pollsters that we will vote for Obama, but we will vote for McCain on the ballot!
All six of you have? Are you sure you have support of all six?
any PUMA worth his or her salt is voting Obama. Was it just her? Get with the program, and do what she's telling you to do.
Look, I'm a 58 year old white Hillary voter. But, I'm not stupid. I'd have to be stupid to either stay home or vote McCain. And, the last thing Hillary is is stupid.
As for you, Sean Silver, I have a very good friend with two sons named Nate and Jake. We call them the deli men. I think there will always be a profit in brats, and I'm sure they can be written about.
I wouldn't be suprised if the Cellphone effect won't be the biggest suprise of the election. Look for that landslide folks. Only 1 more day.
NATE!!!
The PEW number is O 49 M 42, O +7
THe O +6 number is based on their PROJECTION! Wouldn't you rather use their raw numbers and do your own allocating of the undecideds?!?
That Bill Maher guy's pretty good. He did a good show on atheism recently.
premp - the strange little noise you make that isn't quite a word when you pass someone in the corridor who you've already said hello to seven times today.
Nate I'm dying here... finish the day's polls!!
Cingular's color was orange, not yellow. That's Nextel or something.
Obama STOLE the nomination from Hillary, and then he DIDN'T PUT HER ON THE TICKET.
The PUMAs will be the people that put McCain over the top in a narrow victory.
I'm writing in HRC.
For further clarity, Gallup does USA Today's polls and this 11-point spread, according to Susan Page, is among traditional likely voters, not the expanded LV or the RV.
I'm in the battleground of VA and over the past 10 days or so, I've gotten 4 touches (knocks/lit drops) from the Obama campaign. This is in Alexandria, so the Obama NoVA machine is well oiled and making sure its voters GOTV on Tuesday. I was so excited by all the attention that I took off E-Day to volunteer!
Personally I don't want PUMA's in the Democratic party and neither does Hillary. If your ego is more important than policies that are good for the country then you're a part of the problem - not a part of the solution.
Passing along from PPP:
The PPP Electoral Map
Over the final week of the campaign PPP has already or is going to release polls in 16 battleground states: basically every remotely competitive one except for New Hampshire, North Dakota, and Arizona (can't do 'em all!)
The 16 states we're surveying account for 194 electoral votes. Assigning North Dakota and Arizona to John McCain and New Hampshire to Barack Obama we began the week with Obama at 204 electoral votes and John McCain at 140.
Based on the polls we released Thursday night we can pretty comfortably call Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Oregon, and Minnesota for Obama and West Virginia for McCain. So as we start rolling out polls tonight the PPP electoral college stands at 252 for Obama and 145 for McCain. We will keep you updated through the night as it changes.
I think the first poll out, still not for a good while, will be Virginia.
at the risk of sounding like a total computer illiterate-how many people with computers dont have a land line?
a satellite IP is still a little pricey at least i thought it was)
if someone has a better idea let me know and ill dump my phone too
The PUMAs will be the people that put McCain over the top in a narrow victory.
I'm writing in HRC.
How do you put McCain over the top when you don't even vote for him?
New USA Today/Gallup Poll:
O53
M42
Sorry if someone's pointed this out to Nate already, but the Overdetermined.net blog has a striking post about early voting in NC ... suggesting that polls are grossly missing the early voters, which may mean Obama is much farther ahead than polls suggest.
Because we're NOT voting for Obama.
Re: Puma. I don't believe it for a minute. I think it's largely a Limbaugh creation. I have yet to meet any strong Hillary supporter who isn't horrified at the thought of Palin within 50 states of the WHite House. Looking at WhoIs and the FEC site, I know that a couple of the Puma boards are run by people who've been long-time GOP donators.
Maybe the Palins have a future after the election as...
Hockey Mom and First Dude- Superheroes of Alaska!
hockeymomfirstdude.blogspot.com
I did a radio hit the other afternoon with Mark DeCamillo of California's vaunted Field Poll, which does include cellphones in their samples.
Nate's interview with Mark DeCamillo can be heard here:
http://www.kqed.org/epArchive/R810310900
These "PUMA's" are just a bunch of truly unpatriotic Americans... Talk about phony... They are actually admitting they are liars. Do they have any friends under those rocks?
Because we're NOT voting for Obama.
But there's six of you. And I think Gladys is starting to think of actually voting for Obama.
Isn't the USA Today/Gallup poll just 3 days of the Gallup tracking poll released as a standalone?
You're going to be seeing a lot of PUMAs in these last days of the election, trust me...
Obama STOLE the nomination from Hillary, and now we're getting our revenge.
Can someone please kill Joe the (non-Plumber)? The guy is seriously getting on my tits.
Honestly, has there ever been a more disgusting campaign than McCain/Palin? The manner in which Bush/Cheney conducted their campaign, compared to McCain/Palin, makes it look as classy as Obama/Biden. If nothing else, McCain's antics have made Bush look honorable. All his campaign did was introduce swiftboat politics and commit electoral fraud.
Thank you Nate! I have been dying to see the cell phone stats. So exciting!
PUMA power!
PeachBloom said...
Nate, you are underestimating the PUMA effect. Obama will pay the consequence for robbing the nomination from Hillary Clinton. On Nov 4, we will rip Obama apart.
P.S. PUMAs always publicly say the support Obama, but when they tick the ballot, they tick McCain!~
***********
I don't get the PUMAS> How did Obama rob Hillary of the nomination? If you're upset with Hillary losing, blame her for running a bad campaign, not the person who took advantage of her bad campaigning. I don't know who the PUMAS are, and I hope they are A LOT smarter than their representative I saw on Hardball right after the Republican Convention, who was so stupid, she made Palin look like Einstein. She said "The Democrats realyl blew it. They should have had it Clinton/Obama and they would have had the White House for the next 16 years, and now the Republicans are going to have it." Obviouslt, she is very new to the political scene. As in that must have been her first day, because how it works in the primaries is that the candidate who gets the most delgates get the nomination. The Democratic Party just can't say to Obama "OK you got enough delgates, but we're going to give it to Hillary anyway, thank you for playing" As if Hillary already didn't have a good chance of beating McCain, that would have ended her chances right there, if they did that.
As a man, I will be disappointed if McCain wins, but my life won't change that much and my future wouldn't look much worst than it doe snow. However, as aowman, if you want to see McCain win, so he can appoint 2 more Conservartive justices to the Supreme Court, go ahead and betray Hillary's principles, and vote for McCain. You'll be cutting off your nose, eyes and mouth to spite your face, but more power to you, if that makes you feel better. Just don't let us hear you whine years from now, when the countries heads further away down the wrong path from what your goals and desires are today. HIllary's chances for the White House are over. traditionally, you only get one shot, and nothing kills a career or chances like losing. If McCain only serves one term, and it should turn into a race of Palin and Hillary in 2012, it would be Greetings President Palin, because the two women would split the women vote, leaving the rest of the countr yo tfall down their natural tendencies, which in my lifetime has been to be conservative. (Plus Hillary's baggage doesn't help her either)
Ryan said...
Isn't the USA Today/Gallup poll just 3 days of the Gallup tracking poll released as a standalone?
NO! It is a separate poll
My daughter and her husband in Virginia have only a cell-phone. In fact I can think of many of my friends who have gifen up land lines to cut costs. How can a poll be reliable without including those users? Looks like then tend to favor Obama. BTW, I get the distinct impression this site is pro-ourman!
DWC
livemild said...
at the risk of sounding like a total computer illiterate-how many people with computers dont have a land line?
Well, I'm one. I have a laptop with DSL internet at home, but I don't have a landline. I'm cell phone only. Nothing seems particularly odd about that to me. (I'm 32 years old, and haven't had a landline for 5 years.)
PeachBloom said...
Nate, you are underestimating the PUMA effect. Obama will pay the consequence for robbing the nomination from Hillary Clinton. On Nov 4, we will rip Obama apart.
P.S. PUMAs always publicly say the support Obama, but when they tick the ballot, they tick McCain!~
Troll, troll, troll your post,
Gently down the blog...
You must be a Brit, because only in British English do people "tick" boxes and ballots. Nice try there, though.
90% of hillary supporters are all aboard the Obama train... I think the remaining PUMAs are bitter that the rational people among them jumped ship and now they're all alone.
DCM in FL, Just because you're loud, doesn't mean you represent a subset of voters that exist in numbers that matter.
Please ignore the PUMA troll. They are obviously trolling and you all are feeding the damn troll
many PUMA'S came home for Obama
@ james derek dwyer
really beautifully done!
gonna email the link to my fav people
Link to James' lovely photo montage
QUESTION:
How do the polling firm GET the cell phone numbers? Just curious.
(Love the site, guys. Thanks for all you do.)
P.S. - DCM...You know not of what you speak. BHO didn't steal anything. And I think you know it. (Or at least you should know it.) He just ran a smarter campaign...and played by the rules.
NATE:
Great information and analysis as always...
Since you threw it out there... Do you really think Obama could win this by 10-12 points?
I'm 37, I OWN my home and I'm cell phone only. A lot of my friends in their 30's are cell phone only. While they aren't 100% Obama they are heavily Obama.
I'd also point out that my girlfriend walks around with different area code in her pocket getting robo calls for local races she can't vote in.
OK, a big problem with Cell phone polls is that you have to make sure that the respondants are in fact "cell phone only" and not just some fool with a cell phone. If you do not then your sample is not random. This leads to the vast majority of cell phone calls not reaching cell phone only registered or likely voters, which makes this kind of polling very expensive IF done correctly.
Sock puppet alert using dcm in fl!!!
PUMAS are so last month. All of you will need some stiff drinks on November 4th to deal with your deranged selves.
You democrats are stupid.
Look at THIS map:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/Jun03.html
HRC would've carried this country easily, but instead you nominated Obama.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/Jun03.html
That was Obama during that period. SHITTY. HRC was doing better!!
Remember the post-Dem Convention banishment of Olbermann & Matthews?
MSNBC is now running promos for election night - hosted by David Gregory, Olbermann and Matthews.
No mention of Rachel Maddow - my guess is she will float between big NBC and MSNBC - she's gold for them and they will want to promote her in the big leagues.
(submisch - part of the Israel navy)
And the PUMA republicans?
Re: Florida
At the risk of sounding like a hand ringer, I have been saying for the longest time I didn't see Obama winning Florida. What concerned me last week was hearing reports that Obama's people didn't trust the Ohio polls, and felt they had a much better chance in Florida. That was when Obama was up by an average of 5 in Ohio, and 2.5 in Florida. I thought he hada better chance in Ohio, than Florida. I've lived her for 36 years, after so many years, you get a feel of how your State think and votes. Just like anyone would of the sate they have live din a long time. I think Obama would be better served to have one mor erally in PA, rather than Florida, if time became an issue tomorrow. They can still win without Florida, but if something should happen and they lose PA. I'll be really wringing my hands.
I wonder if the cell-phone gap has widened lately. It looks like a 4-point difference in Nate's chart. That is up a bit from the 2,2 pt gap 2 months ago. I think that the McCain campaign has campaigned hard for demographics that still prefer landline phones, but they have lost cellphone voters - especially since they picked Sarah Palin.
http://www.rumproast.com/index.php/site/comments/the_truth_about_puma_conference_08_you_cant_spell_conference_without_c_o_n/
Read this for more info on the PUMA movement.
DCM in FL, you're joking, right? I don't remember you being crazy.
How do the polling firm GET the cell phone numbers? Just curious.
Isn't it random dialing?
CBS POLL
O 54
M 41
Unchanged from yesterday
NC is going blue. We closed out early voting and registration yesterday and our state board had updated the numbers by this morning. Dems are now 46% of electorate to 31% Republican. Early voting had even higher Dem percentage. My anecdotal evidence from many canvasses is that we have more Repubs for Obama than Dems for McCain. Early vote turnout equalled 72% of 2004 total turnout.
wv: riedsige: Hillary's plan to control the Senate?
@davidteitch
And also, let's not forget the great Italian president Abraham Lincolni.
Thanks, this made my idiocy worth it. :)
Look at the facts. Hillary was winning, but they ignored the wants of the people.
Look at THIS map:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/Jun03.html
HRC would've carried this country easily, but instead you nominated Obama.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/Jun03.html
That was Obama during that period. SHITTY. HRC was doing better!!
DCM in FL said..."Obama STOLE the nomination from Hillary, and then he DIDN'T PUT HER ON THE TICKET."
What? Obama didn't put Hillary on the ticket? When did you hear this? And did you know McCain was a PoW? When people find that out, the whole country will go red!
I am 34, and I would be cell phone only, but in our area of NM, there is just not enough coverage. I only get reception at the very front of my front porch LOL I also haven't received any poll calls, but I have that anti-solicitor service on my phone, and I spend all my spare time knocking on doors for Obama.
Ran into many first time voters today, both young and old. 52-year old guy told me he registered just to vote for BO, another 62 year old woman told me she hadn't voted in 30 years or so, but had sent her ballot in!!
It is an amazing day. Got about 40 knocks in, and got some more votes.
Everyone keep on keeping on!!!
The PUMAs are right. Obama *totally* stole the primary by, like, getting more votes and, like, winning more contests, and, like, running a far superior campaign against the odds.
How unfair!!
--
Wondering what to do after the election?
I am starting a new board for discussing politics, current events and other interesting topics. It is a spin-off of the blog that some of you know about; you can read an overview of the forum here.
If interested, follow the instructions at the bottom to contact me. Brain-dead right-wing trolls need not apply. :)
Wow.... check this out:
of the "final" polls released so far, Obama has 52-54% in ALL of them!
Pew: 52-46
CNN: 53-46
CBS: 54-41
USAToday/ Gallup: 53-42
Maybe George Will, of all people, will be right-- Obama may beat the Bush- Dukakis spread!
I haven't had a land line since 2002. Also, people, please ignore the PUMA trolls.
Re: the "non-trivial number out volunteering for Obama"
I've been thinking about this in regard to recent NC polling. During the Early Voting window, the campaign set - and exceeded - a 100,000 volunteer hour goal. For the final 72 hours, it's twice that (and I wouldn't be surprised if it's exceeded again). Now I know that every Obama supporter in NC isn't out volunteering in NC every weekend, but it certainly seems that a "non-trivial" number are. I wouldn't be surprised if a percentage point was lost in volunteer activity polling difficulties. I think this speaks to the point that Tom Jensen at PPP was making when he talked about time in the field and polls that didn't "dial back" their call list, but just kept ended when they got a certain sample size. Much more likely to lose Obama supporters than those who call through a specific polling call list.
PeachBloom said...
Nate, you are underestimating the PUMA effect. Obama will pay the consequence for robbing the nomination from Hillary Clinton. On Nov 4, we will rip Obama apart.
P.S. PUMAs always publicly say the support Obama, but when they tick the ballot, they tick McCain!~
AND
DCM in FL said...
Obama STOLE the nomination from Hillary, and then he DIDN'T PUT HER ON THE TICKET.
The PUMAs will be the people that put McCain over the top in a narrow victory.
I'm writing in HRC.
AND I say...AS a HRC Voter...BULLSH*T and call Troll on ya
Every HRC voter/PUMA I know is voting Obama
thatone4pre-
thanks . ive got dsl too
should have never thought that i didnt need the land phone.
Look at the facts. Hillary was winning, but they ignored the wants of the people.
Look at THIS map:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/Jun03.html
HRC would've carried this country easily, but instead you nominated Obama.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/Jun03.html
That was Obama during that period. SHITTY. HRC was doing better!!
Wow, some good results coming through
Couple of questions:
Looking at the supertracker, why, during the first months of the campaign, was there such a wide general divergence between polls, but from about April on they're much more closely clustered?
And why has the projection veered more to McCain than the trend for the entire campaign except the first few weeks when McCain had a good lead?
vaglok - erm...
DCM in FL is not the original DCM in FL.
what the hell is a puma?
Fuck this PUMA noise. GOTV is the only game in (your) town. Make history. Be a part of it.
Here's Johnny's new poster to get you through:
Obamanos!
Why are people talking about PUMA's? These guys will totally fade away after this landslide victory.
@ScottI know several people (in the swing state of Colorado) who are cellphone only. Most of these folks, (like me I'm 39) are not young, but in their 30's and 40's and all of them are voting for Obama.
The Denver area went through a strong growth period in the mid-to-late 90's. US West got so far behind installing land lines that the Colorado PUC forced US West to give people free cell phones while they were waiting for their land lines. I don't know how this all sorted out, but I wouldn't be surprised if this skewed the cell-only population of Denver older and strongly towards people who have moved to Denver or moved within Denver at least once in the 90's. Various speculations lead off from there into even more dubious territory.
(VW: ungst: anxiety about something that is not actually happening.)
Obama bots are the real trolls. They want to brainwash people to think that Obama is the messiah. Obama does NOT have executive experiences and he barely has done anything except for telling people how good he is. He might be an excellent public speaker, but he can be a great talk show host right?
John McCain '08
Why are you ignoring my message?
LOOK AT THE MAPS:
Look at the facts. Hillary was winning, but they ignored the wants of the people.
Look at THIS map:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/Jun03.html
HRC would've carried this country easily, but instead you nominated Obama.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/Jun03.html
What exactly is a non-trivial amount? I would think that the amount of people unavailable via cell phone because they are volunteering for Obama would in fact be trivial and entirely unimportant.
Saw this image from NYP: http://www.nypost.com/seven/11022008/photos/news004a.jpg
Seems somewhat similar to the post earlier today, but in chronological order. Can we get something similar for the important senate races & presidential election states?
DCM in FL said...
Why are you ignoring my message?
Because you are an idiot?
Couple of things,
DCM in FL, I started wondering if that were you, but when you sounded like an idiot, I knew it wasn't. As DCM would say, DNFTT
and thanks Cloudy, been on here forever and don't know what a PUMA is either, it took me forever to figure out IMHO (just here for the facts) =)
punchar---oh I think you know that I would love to punchar
heather hi-
for us living in a battleground state NM i have gotten one poll phone call and you havent gotten any.
lol
did get one of those awful robocalls though.
btw-thanks for working for obama. my sister and brotherinlaw were out today in NC.
Look at the maps, bluegirl.
Look at them.
Tell me what you see.
HRC doing better almost EVERYWHERE.
USA Poll
http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/11/final-usa-today.html
I agree with DCM in FL. Obama was SELECTED, not ELECTED.
ACORN, Wright, Ayers... Obama will mess up the country.
Just 48 hours until the right-wing troll noise fades into the dust...
--
Wondering what to do after the election?
I am starting a new board for discussing politics, current events and other interesting topics. It is a spin-off of the blog that some of you know about; you can read an overview of the forum here.
If interested, follow the instructions at the bottom to contact me. Brain-dead right-wing trolls need not apply. :)
The NY Post has Colorado as a solid McCain state... LOOOOOOOOOOL.
Thank you peachbloom.
Notice how they all assert how stupid I am and right they are...have ANY of you looked at the maps?
"at the risk of sounding like a total computer illiterate-how many people with computers dont have a land line?"
___________________________________
I was cell only and I have a cable modem. I only have a landline now because my cable company gives me one free. I do not answer it though and I do not have an answering machine. It is always the LA Times or my mother in law, neither are a call I feel like taking. I just keep the phone because it makes it helps me find my phone when I cannot find it.
Raggyour. The possesive for Raggedy Ann and Andy.
Honestly, the PUMA trolls are my favorite, because '...and also, we've made a sekrit pact to systematically lie to the pollsters!' is some of the most creative and convoluted rationalization/denial I've seen in this whole campaign.
DCM in FL said...
Look at the maps, bluegirl.
Look at them.
Tell me what you see.
HRC doing better almost EVERYWHERE.
HOW can she be doing better when SHE isnt the one who is running for President. She LOST the nomination...oh well...bummer Dude...Yes I voted for her but she lost.
SO NOW the Candidate is Obama...SO Hillary IS NOT winning
To counter the DCM sockpuppet:
Old data is old. That's all pre-Palin, for one thing. It's pre-debates for another, and it wasn't considering McCain at all, just Obama and Hillary.
Please try to bring your common sense. And use your own name.
Bluegirl, perhaps your mind doesn't understand.
Back when they were candidates, HILLARY was ahead. The nation wanted Hillary. Again, LOOK AT THE MAPS!!!!
@ DCM
it's funny that they call non-obamabot supporters 'troll', as if this site is only for Obama supporters. I know this site is affiliated with Obama, but it doesn't say you have to be an Obama supporter to post.
I am a REGISTERED DEMOCRAT for John McCain. I voted for Kerry in 2004 and I am an ardent supporter of Hillary Clinton in 2008.
I'm also a homeowner, cell only. 90% of my friends back in CO are cell only, and all Obama. HUGE midwestern relocation in the last 10 years to D-town.
Obama/Biden 2012!!!!
Hey Peachbloom,
Look for me on Wednesday. I'll be one of the 60,000,000+ who will be on the correct side of History.
No, there is an Obama v. McCain and a Clinton v. McCain map. Clinton was doing better almost everywhere, especially in places that mattered.
Yo, Peachiebloomers:
When was John McCain's last significant "Executive Experience", and how does that relate to being President in 2008?
Show your work.
Can we not talk to the fake Pumas? Please, let't not encourage their lame ass desire for attention they did not get from mommy.
absis. What the real PUMAs are, all eight of them.
Is Alaska Girl Really A Natural Blonde? Great phone interview /w the Canadians. She is really great on info.
They just don't want to accept the PUMAS will end their hopes of an Obama victory.
I don't want to vote for McCain either, but there's no way I'm voting Hussein. I'll either write in Hillary or vote Nader.
You know the GOP is in trouble when the so-called Pumas come out of the woodwork. It's been what, two months since this brand of troll went away?
Someone please explain to me how Obama deserves to be the nominee when he lost:
California Primary
Texas Primary
New York Primary
Florida Primary
Pennsylvania Primary
Ohio Primary
New Jersey Primary
Massachusetts Primary
DCM in FL said...
No, there is an Obama v. McCain and a Clinton v. McCain map. Clinton was doing better almost everywhere, especially in places that mattered
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SO WHAT...she isn't running
Get over it already
So the news today is filled with two contrary lines: the race is too close to call and McCain can still pull it out starting with a PA win, or the race is widening with Obama trending toward a real landslide. This is a classic Maalox moment.
RealJoe, with all this, do you still believe PA is safely blue?
As Dario said this "DCM in FL" is a sock puppet. PLEASE IGNORE.
Someone please explain to me how Obama deserves to be the nominee when he lost:
California Primary
Texas Primary
New York Primary
Florida Primary
Pennsylvania Primary
Ohio Primary
New Jersey Primary
Massachusetts Primary
Because he won more delegates than anyone one. The only thing that matters.
Moron.
Pew: 52-46
CNN: 53-46
CBS: 54-41
USAToday/ Gallup: 53-42
That USA Today poll is gonna sting like a bastard with the FReeptards. They were all rejoicing over that poll when it showed McCain 54%-44% following the scum's convention. They were literally calling the election for McCain.
How would you tell if Obama messed up the country? Stock market crash? Multiple unpopular wars? Cultural hostility? Hated by most of the world? High unemployment? Rampant inflation in consumer staples? At this point I don't think anyone could mess up the country as bad as the last 8 years of republican rule. They've run the country into a ditch.
So what? The point is, as peachbloom said, Hillary was elected, Hussein was selected.
It's just like Gore in 2000. The delegates chose our nominee, not the people.
I'm kind of shocked that Kos didn't require R2K to include cellphone-only users in their polling. I've been cellphone only for more than four years.
Barack deserves to be the candidate because it's all about the caucus, baby. I personally swung my precinct to Obama here in WA. Democracy in action, moonbat!
All you guys cry about Gore being the person who should be president, not Bush. I agree. But guess what, that also applies here. Hillary should be our nominee, not Obama.
I think the cell phone gap has widened as it isn't just the college kids. I've owned my home for 20 years and decided 3 years ago it was a waste of money to have a land line.
Nate I don't like McCain having 200+ electoral votes. Can you please factor in the cell phone and get it down to below 200 again please? Pretty please?
wv - hipled -- an aging hippie
Same on the cell-only. I'm a soon to be college graduate and every person I know is cell-only as well. If you're only polling landlines you're not getting virtually any college students.
And we're going to vote this time.
Huh? People are suddenly talking again about whether Obama should be the nominee 2 days before the election? Not only that, an election where Obama appears to be headed towards a blowout.
Whatever floats your boat, I guess.
I'm really sorry to hear you feel that way, Peachbloom.
Maybe you should push for an effort in 2012 to have the way the nominee is determined changed.
Or are you suggesting people shouldn't have played by the rules? Surely not.
DCM in FL said...
So what? The point is, as peachbloom said, Hillary was elected, Hussein was selected.
And he is about to be "selected" by a strong majority of voters on Tuesday.
The PUMAS are gonna kill any chance Hillary had of ever winning anything again.
She needs the real Democrats to win. PUMAS remind me of Luck Van Pelt.
McCain's schedule for Monday:
"On Monday, McCain will spend much of the day in the air while traveling to six states - starting the day in Tampa, FL, he then heads to Blountville, TN and Moon Township, PA, Indianapolis, IN, Roswell, NM, Henderson, NV and ending the night with a midnight rally in Prescott, AZ."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/02/where-they-are-today-and_n_140202.html
What the hell is he doing in Tennessee?
Anyone care to dispute this point?
All you guys cry about Gore being the person who should be president, not Bush. I agree. But guess what, that also applies here. Hillary should be our nominee, not Obama.
On CNN - Palin in front of bored looking 6 years old in Ohio
(cation - a long weekend)
I agree with DCMinFl.
One more fatal thing about obama supporters is that they are really LOUD, just like how crazy fans shout out their idol's name in a concert. They just want to make people think Obama has all the support, but in REALITY, he actually doesn't have that many. Many McCain supporters are older and just don't think it's rational to scream to the country that they support McCain.
Andy JS said...
It would be interested to see a graph showing the rate of cell-phone usage. I bet it's different in California compared to Mississippi.
I think it would be very similar. Cell phones are not a high tech thing nor are they considered a luxury item. I would be even more interested in knowing how many people don't have one.
But I'm probably missing something here. Why do you think there would be a difference?
Peachbloom
Let me expalin this to u.
In certain states u have a caucus, u win by how many delegates u have represented in the caucus. He had more delegates. Just like on 11-4-08 the electoral college will decide. Not the popular vote.
DUH
And he is about to be "selected" by a strong majority of voters on Tuesday.
No, you're wrong. If Hussein does win the popular vote, he'll be elected. If he wins the electoral vote and not the popular vote, he'll be selected.
To the supposed PUMAs:
As no logic can reach you, please change your party affiliation at the next possible opportunity, so you can proudly claim your vote.
I would love to see HRC say she decided against running in 2012.
Because as it stands, if McCain wins now, no way will HRC win in 2012, especially if a majority of democrats believe PUMA caused McCain to succeed.
Being petty goes both ways, you see.
Vote as you will. PUMA's name will be quite appropriate, as it will ensure all of us bitter Obamans will spite you in 2012.
PS. We outnumber you greatly.
So, in short: Vote for whoever you please, but don't be surprised if you find HRC never making it to the oval office.
Finally: We don't freakin' care about what happened in the primaries. You're not adding anything by telling us who you're voting for. 538 is a POLLING ANALYSIS site, and anecdotal evidence in the comments doesn't constitute valid polling methods.
>All you guys cry about Gore being the person who should be president
Good god, did ya'all miss the bridge to the 21st century?
Cell phone only here -- 45 yo Male.
DCM in FL is a sockpuppet tonight. This is not the regular poster.
" peachbloom said...
I agree with DCMinFl.
One more fatal thing about obama supporters is that they are really LOUD, just like how crazy fans shout out their idol's name in a concert. They just want to make people think Obama has all the support, but in REALITY, he actually doesn't have that many. Many McCain supporters are older and just don't think it's rational to scream to the country that they support McCain."
I guess we'll see Tuesday, The great thing about an election is that we'll no longer need to speculate. I assume you'll come back Wednesday and discuss how it was that so few (albeit LOUD) supporters managed to elect Obama by a wide margin.
I'm just making a point. Gore is the same as Hillary. They were both denied their rightful status.
I love the desparation here.
People are reduced to trolling as fake PUMAs (a demographic that doesn't actually exist).
Thanks, guys! I'll be sure to make more calls tomorrow just to make sure your vote doesn't matter.
I can just laugh at the trolls. In 2 days they'll have nothing more to talk about.
Pathetic, Ugly, Myopic and Angry
Positioned Under My Ass
and for some recursion...
PUMA Unity My Ass.
Hey hot dog dude why not a Kahuna Burger or perhaps a Le Royal w/cheese?
"DCM in FL is a sockpuppet tonight. This is not the regular poster."
And he's talking to himself as PeachBloom. Please ignore.
So last week from Mon-Thur. we saw tightening in the national polls, but the state polls showed OBama holding steady. Now we see national polls increasing for Obama and state polls tightening. I am just trying to make sense of this, my hope is that these state polls lag behind the national polls and we see this pay dividends on Tuesday.
There's a post on the LATimes with a KarlRove&Co map that is a clear Obama winner.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/photos/uncategorized/2008/10/30/rovemap1029_2.jpeg
You Hussein supporters are so closed minded. You ignore anyone with a different opinion than you.
My opinion is supported with FACTS. The nation wanted Hillary, the delegates wanted Obama. Sadly, the people don't matter, as we saw in the 2000 presidential election.
Obama at all time high on Intrade!
@PeachBloom
I am a conservative democrat older white guy in the South who supports Obama, and I am not loud. But that is beside the point, how is re-arguing the nomination constructive at this point? It could be mistaken for bitterness.
Obama won in Texas. He got the most delegates.
"Deserving" to win is not how candidates are selected. We Democrats select our candidate based on primary votes and caucuses.
Obama had the best strategy and many of us thought he had the best message. He won by having a good message, a good plan, excellent organization, and a great team. He did what a good leader does. What a good manager and organizer does. And that's how he won the nomination.
Man, this fake DCM guy is great.
"The nation wanted Hillary"
Lacking a grasp on reality is not a good way to convince one of whatever point it is you're trying to make.
Keep trying though!
Nate, you run a great website that I have really enjoyed since April.
One topic I have not seen you discuss at length is what I consider the true X factor for this election -- more than cellphones or the Bradley effect (lying to pollsters): Between 40% and now up to 80% recently of all persons reached by phone are refusing to participate in polls at all. One study reported a few weeks ago said the refusers tend to be older, more conservative, and are more likely to be antiblack. Obama supporters are eager to talk with regular pollsters or exit pollsters.
This could wreak havoc with poll-based predictions.
beek said...
McCain's schedule for Monday:
"On Monday, McCain will spend much of the day in the air while traveling to six states - starting the day in Tampa, FL, he then heads to Blountville, TN and Moon Township, PA, Indianapolis, IN, Roswell, NM, Henderson, NV and ending the night with a midnight rally in Prescott, AZ."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/02/where-they-are-today-and_n_140202.html
What the hell is he doing in Tennessee?
November 2, 2008 7:33 PM
***************
picking up some Johnny Walker for a long miserable night in AZ.
I'm 43 and my live-in girlfriend is 35. We technically have a landline, however is part of our cable bundle. We don't even know what the number is and we have the ringer turned off. In 6 months, the bundle price expires, so it will be disconnected then. I have a daughter in college, no landline there either. All three voted Obama.
Does anyone know the what the penetration is for cell phones? At some point it will exceed landlines.
By 2016 we may be talking about the "landline effect" ;)
FReeptard USA Today/Gallup Poll VICTORY Threads
McCain Sees 17-Point Surge In USA Today Poll
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2077067/posts?q=1&;page=1
USA Today, Gallup Poll: John McCain, Sarah Palin Take Ten Point Lead
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2077160/posts?q=1&;page=1
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2077017/posts?q=1&;page=1
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2077179/posts?page=29;q=1#29
@livemild
YW for the volunteering. I've been really waiting for the pollsters to call, but they haven't LOL
I don't get the robocalls, but I am in the nice sea of blue in the north. The only McCain stuff we see is brought on by the religious nuts.
@PUMA TROLL (yes, we know its you talking to yourself)
Give up using dcm in fl's name, as we all know it is not him/her. We will not look at maps of a fictitious race, that's just stupid.
What the hell is he doing in Tennessee?
Ambinder explained that he is stopping there, at an airport, because its media market reaches the western part of Virginia.
"Between 40% and now up to 80% recently of all persons reached by phone are refusing to participate in polls at all. One study reported a few weeks ago said the refusers tend to be older, more conservative, and are more likely to be antiblack."
Surely you have links for arguments like those. Non-biased evidence that would have a chance of convincing anyone.
Right? A Republican troll like you would *never* just claim things and not back them up, would you?!
More hit-and-run "insight" from Mrinsight. *yawn*
Lacking a grasp on reality is not a good way to convince one of whatever point it is you're trying to make.
Look at my maps above. I.AM.USING.FACTS. Hillary was wanted by the nation, she had more EV'S, she WAS LEADING MCCAIN IN THE GALLUP POLL WHILE OBAMA WASN'T!!!
Roar of PUMAs, vocal Hillary Clinton supporters, has softened
12:00 AM CDT on Tuesday, October 28, 2008
"AUSTIN – If the polls and the media are any indication, the once-ferocious roar of the PUMAs is sounding more like the quiet, harmless purr of a kitten."...
...""At the end of the day, Hillary supporters are going to have more than eight chances in 10 of being Obama supporters," said Richard Johnston, professor of political science and director of the National Annenberg Election Study at the University of Pennsylvania. "The aggregate polls have him pretty close to 8 points ahead. My suspicion is that they are actually a pretty important part of the general solidification of his position."
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/politics/national/stories/DN-puma_28pol.ART.State.Edition1.4a7a16a.html
One study reported a few weeks ago said the refusers tend to be older, more conservative, and are more likely to be antiblack. Obama supporters are eager to talk with regular pollsters or exit pollsters.
By the way, they figure this out by taking a poll of those that refuse to participate in the poll. As usual mrinsight22 offers no insight.
I thought PUMA's were on the endangered species list.
Shit - Intrade is going to have worse odds for McCain than 538 by tomorrow am.
The fake DCM in FL, who is making the stupid and already debunked argument about Hillary self-evidently being a stronger candidate, should to be banned. Impersonating users should not be tolerated. It wasn't okay when it happened to Mule Rider, it wasn't okay when it happened to Pete Kent, and it isn't okay now that it's happening to DCM in FL (who is one of the best commentators here). Sock puppets should be banned.
The percentage of idiots has skyrocketed here tonight. I guess the desperation of trailing badly a couple of nights before election day is starting to make some conservatives even more loopy. Sort of pathetic.
You can add 2 more cell-phone only votes for Obama. My husband and I live in (Commie) Virginia, are in our 30's, and are engineers. We have not been counted in any poll, but we are out here, just waiting to vote on Tuesday.
"I am just trying to make sense of this, my hope is that these state polls lag behind the national polls and we see this pay dividends on Tuesday."
Nate debunked that myth the other day. Go to
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_by_state_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2008
It shows that lots of the recent polls were taken in the last 2 to 3 days. Mason-Dixon was a little older though.
Slightly sensationalist but still interesting London Times article
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article5068612.ece
Quote:
Now British polls are properly and carefully weighted, taking account of what is known as the spiral of silence – the tendency of voters for the less fashionable party to keep their intentions to themselves. British pollsters weight their results to allow for these shy voters. US pollsters do not.
.....
I have never heard of 'the spiral of silence' before. Intriguing.
McCain is doing the traditional airport rally last day thing, which means small crowds in small spaces aimed at TV audience. Doesn't look good though for national audiences. And he is going to seem exhausted as anyone would.
Obama, if he sticks to four stops, likely means large visually strong looking rallies.
Robert Byrd and Chavez endroses Obama, the MSN is not on this.
Dirty campaign.
I think someone posted something from their state in NC earlier, wanted to say thanks, living in FL (sorry dunno who pays attn so will always say it for the next 2 days), I am happy to see BO doesn't "need" us to win. I still hold positive that we will go blue. =)
I haven't been polled, and honestly don't know how people are, I owe too many damn people to answer my phone. I have only recently started answering 407 numbers incase I am going to get polled. I have gotten 2 calls from the Obama camp asking if I have voted yet (no)one on cell one on landline. I end up talking more than they do on their great work, how exciting it all is and that YES THEY CAN count on the vote of mine and my husband's my mom and 4 bestest friends that are also voting for him (like I said I talk more than they do).....
An acknowledgement that the Mason Dixon polls show a positive trend toward Obama:
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/
"I can just laugh at the trolls. In 2 days they'll have nothing more to talk about."
___________________________________
It will be all about ACORN then and VOTER FRAUD!
Remluss. Insomnia?
About the cellphone only users.. My wife and I don't have a landline, none of my friends do either. At work, all my coworkers that are around my age are also cellphone only. I would say that most people I know are cellphone only...
peachbloom,
Obama supporters are not loud.Just young,gifted,full of energy,enthusiam,potential,.Ready for a change in the way America is perceived in the world today. Go out of the country as we have and see how welcome you are in other parts of the world.Get out of your little box and come join us to make this world a better place and show more kindness,grace, and love for your fellow man as our leader the Senator from Lincoln is showing us . Take the high road and join us.
Robert Byrd and Chavez endroses Obama, the MSN is not on this.
Dirty campaign.
WTF is your point Dario??
FReeptard USA Today/Gallup Poll VICTORY Threads
McCain Sees 17-Point Surge In USA Today Poll
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2077067/posts?q=1&;page=1
USA Today, Gallup Poll: John McCain, Sarah Palin Take Ten Point Lead
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2077160/posts?q=1&;page=1
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2077017/posts?q=1&;page=1
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2077179/posts?page=29;q=1#29
LOL! lovely reading!
Alright
Just watch.
Most of you already saw by electoral vote graphs. Does that not convince you? Look at the past gallup polls.
Hillary was BEATING McCain, and Obama was LOSING to him. What does that tell you?
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